Advani’s forecast: Will it come true?
Veteran BJP leader L.K. Advani has caused confusion among the faithful with his Sunday blog post forecasting that the next Lok Sabha election is likely to throw up a non-BJP, non-Congress government. Mr Advani is an astute observer who knows a thing or two about the prevailing political climate.
The trouble, as far as the BJP goes, is that he has spoken freely, not as a party man. Should he have? That is a question for the BJP, or, more to the point, the RSS, which is the holding company for the BJP and certain other bodies. From the outside, it can probably be said that if Mr Advani were still wielding executive authority in the party that he has reared from its infancy, he may have observed greater restraint, not least because his prognosis can demoralise the BJP rank and file and sow doubts in the minds of its NDA allies and prospective associates.
While incumbency blues may be expected to hit the Congress, which powers the UPA government (this is not a state secret), the real point Mr Advani makes is that his party is not up to scratch and is not in a position to take advantage of the Congress’ presumably weakened state. Actually, this, too, is not a state secret. The BJP is uncomfortable because the octogenarian has spelt it out.
The wider point Mr Advani directs our attention to is analytical. Even if he is not conscious of it, he is saying, in effect, that never before in the coalition era has the country been in a situation in which the main Opposition party is so internally vulnerable that it cannot seize the moment from the ruling dispensation. The Congress has responded with the jibe that the BJP has acknowledged it has lost the battle before it has commenced. This is a part of the normal cut and thrust of political life in which people sometimes go back home with a black eye. But what needs examination is the deeper point Mr Advani makes — that the next government will most likely be put together by a gaggle of regional parties with the backing of either the Congress or the BJP — although such a government, he predicts, will be unstable, citing earlier precedents.
Interestingly, JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav, whose charismatic leader Nitish Kumar is tipped as a PM aspirant, on Monday publicly differed with Mr Advani. This suggests the JD(U) may not be inclined to back a regional leader as PM. Perhaps the same is also true of other important regional parties and their leaders, although individually each may aspire to be PM. That really brings back both the BJP and the Congress into contention.
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