Act confidently in a realigning world
In order to appease India, and at its request, Moscow agreed to defer President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Islamabad because New Delhi made the case that the atmospherics for the India-Russia summit in November should not be unsettled. That was a large-hearted gesture on Moscow’s part, but how one wishes India had not argued that way. It betrays a lack of confidence in its own capabilities.
In the post-Cold War world, India has diversified its relationships to include the United States and Israel and enhanced its ties with Western Europe and Japan. This was a long way from its almost exclusive reliance on Moscow, especially for weapons, not to say the veto in the UN Security Council on Kashmir. Indeed, in the first flush of the fall of Communism, the new Russia itself sought to broaden ties with the West, but the limits of this soon became exposed.
The point, however, is that in a freer international atmosphere all countries, including those that were ideological adversaries, sought a realignment of equations for mutual satisfaction. It is clear that the post-Communist Russia was the only major power which appeared to enjoy less leverage in Afghanistan — which is its virtual neighbour and which shared borders with it in the Soviet period — than other regional entities or key powers. To make good this gap, Moscow is now seeking to redefine its ties with Pakistan which were only of a formal nature earlier.
Russia has just hosted Pakistan’s Army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pavez Kayani. The Pakistan Army has trained the Taliban and nurtures them. When the Taliban ruled Kabul, the Pakistan Army had clear-cut plans to establish influence in the Muslim republics of the then USSR. Knowing this, Moscow has now determined to have a proper speaking relationship with Islamabad which controls the Taliban, whose profile, if it grows, will matter politically in Afghanistan when America’s combat role there has ended.
India’s interests may even have been furthered if New Delhi sought to play the role of a bridge in developing nascent Russia-Pakistan ties. That would be the sign of a confident power. The interests of Russia and India can’t be adversarial in Afghanistan or anywhere else. Both sides must have faith in this. But the best-friend type approach should be abandoned. It simply does not work in real life. This was shown up in the 1990s when in various ways India had first sought a “special” relationship with Nelson Mandela’s South Africa but luckily gave up that foolish quest. India still has a massive and mutually gainful relationship with Russia. The two have very few mutual contradictions and should seek to work together in respect of Afghanistan, regionally and internationally.
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