Boeing sees global jet market worth $4tn
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Passenger jet sales will reach $4 trillion over the next 20 years, Boeing predicted on Thursday as it hiked demand forecasts on the eve of the Paris Air Show.
The US planemaker estimated a total of 33,500 jetliner sales by all manufacturers between 2011 and 2030, led by Asia which has already toppled North America as the busiest region for air travel and is set to dominate in coming decades.
Last year Boeing predicted 30,900 plane sales worth $3.6 trillion over the 20 years up to 2029.
The increase partly reflects a healthier starting point as the aviation industry has already turned the corner from recession. But it also factors in an 8 percent increase in anticipated demand for single-aisle jets like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, a segment of the market worth $2 trillion.
The future of such planes is expected to dominate the Paris Air Show starting on Monday as Boeing's European rival Airbus markets an A320 revamped with better engines. Boeing is mulling whether to soup up the 737 or build an all-new plane.
"The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing's commercial division.
Boeing and Airbus face new competition from countries like China and Canada for sales of single-aisle passenger jets in the 150-seat category, the backbone for many fast-growing low-cost airlines.
In a different market battleground, Boeing is expecting demand worth $1.8 trillion for 7,330 twin-aisle planes like the wide-bodied 777 or the new carbon-composite 787 Dreamliner, and Tinseth estimated 4,000 of these would be in the 777 class.
Boeing's latest demand forecast includes 11,450 new passenger jets worth $1.5 trillion for Asia over the next 20 years in a confirmation of the region's transport-intensive growth -- despite expansion of high-speed rail in China.
"The core of the aviation market has now moved from the U.S. and North America to the Asian-Pacific market place," Tinseth told a news conference.
By the end of 2012, there will be 12,000 km of high-speed rail lines in China, as much as in the rest of the world.
That will dampen some air travel demand but will also promote overall economic growth that should result in further investment in aviation, with 97 airports set to open in China by 2020, Tinseth said.
Demand for airliners is closely tied to GDP growth and world trade but is further boosted by changes in the behaviour of airline customers, with more people choosing to travel directly to their destination on smaller planes, according to Boeing.
With its A380 superjumbo, Airbus has partly bet on a different philosophy. It assumes more people will travel on larger planes via regional hubs, because airports and airways will be too congested to support an infinite number of routes.
Boeing is predicting 3.3 per cent average growth in the world economy over the next 20 years coupled with 5.1 per cent average annual growth in passenger traffic and 5.6 per cent in air cargo.
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